Sunday, March 25, 2007

Is Pakistan the Next Talibanistan?

Bill Roggio, in a detailed report on The Weekly Standard, paints a bleak picture in Pakistan:

The security situation in Pakistan's North-West Frontier Province continues to deteriorate. Once again, Western pressure on the government of President Pervez Musharraf has failed to prevent Pakistan from handing over territory to the Taliban


Since the signing of the Waziristan Accord on September 5, 2006, essentially ceding North Waziristan to the Taliban and al Qaeda, attacks in both Pakistan and Afghanistan have skyrocketed. Afghanistan has seen an increase in attacks of more than 300 percent, and battalion-sized groups of Taliban fighters have been hit while crossing the border from Pakistan. Cross-border raids are up more than 200 percent, and NATO forces have repeatedly engaged in hot pursuit across the Pakistani frontier. U.S. artillery has begun to strike at large Taliban formations in Pakistani territory. Suicide bombings in Afghanistan increased fivefold from 2005 to 2006. This year, there have already been more suicide attacks in Afghanistan than in all of 2006.


The United States smashed al Qaeda's base of operations in Afghanistan in 2001, only to see it transferred to northwestern Pakistan. The refusal of the Musharraf regime to deal with this situation, and the active participation of elements of the Pakistani military, intelligence, and political elites in supporting our enemies, are worrisome for our efforts in the war on terror--and threaten the very existence of a non-jihadist Pakistani state.
Musharraf is playing a deadly game by feeding the crocodile.

Soon there will be no food left.

It is unclear which is of more concern: Afghanistan falling to the Taliban or Pakistan to the Islamists.

Especially given that Pakistan is a nuclear power.

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